How Australia Calculates Skilled Visa Invitations: Insights from Newly Released FOI Documents 

How Australia calculates skilled visa invitations

Australia’s skilled migration system is often perceived as a simple points-based competition. Many applicants believe that if they achieve a high enough score in SkillSelect, an invitation for the Skilled Independent visa (Subclass 189) will follow. However, recently released Freedom of Information (FOI) documents from the Department of Home Affairs provide new insight into how invitation rounds are actually planned. The documents reveal that invitations are influenced not only by points but also by occupation ceilings, workforce data, and government labour market priorities. Understanding how this system works can help skilled migrants plan their pathway to Australian permanent residency more effectively. 

The FOI Documents Explained 

Two key FOI disclosures provide insight into the planning of the skilled migration program: 

1. Correspondence relating to the 13 November 2025 SkillSelect invitation round 
2. Internal modelling used to calculate occupation ceilings for the 2025–26 migration program year 

These documents were released through the Department of Home Affairs FOI disclosure log. They reveal how the government determines the number of invitations that may be issued for each occupation under the skilled migration program. 

Which Visas Are Affected by Occupation Ceilings?

 Occupation ceilings apply specifically to two visa streams: 

• Subclass 189 – Skilled Independent visa 
• Subclass 491 – Skilled Work Regional (Provisional) visa – Family Sponsored stream 

These ceilings are used to limit the number of invitations issued to applicants in each occupation during a migration program year. It is important to note that occupation ceilings do not apply to several other visa pathways, including:

• Subclass 190 – Skilled Nominated visa (state nomination) 
• Subclass 482 – Temporary Skill Shortage visa 
• Subclass 186 – Employer Nomination Scheme visa 

State governments and employers manage their own nomination processes for those visas. 

The Four-Tier Occupation Framework 

The FOI documents show that the Department organised occupations into four priority tiers when planning the 2025–26 migration program. This framework reflects Australia’s labour market needs and helps determine which occupations are prioritised in invitation rounds. 

Tier 1 – Critical Workforce Occupations 

Tier 1 occupations represent areas experiencing the most significant national shortages. These occupations often include healthcare roles such as: 

• Registered nurses 
• Medical practitioners
• Allied health professionals 

Australia’s ageing population and increased healthcare demand have placed significant pressure on the health workforce. As a result, healthcare occupations are frequently prioritised in skilled migration planning. 

Tier 2 – Essential Social Infrastructure Occupations 

Tier 2 includes professions that support essential services and community wellbeing. 

Examples include: 

• Teachers 
• Psychologists 
• Social workers 
• Counsellors 

Demand for these occupations has increased due to population growth, education needs, and rising demand for mental health services. 

Tier 3 – Skilled Trades and Technical Occupations 

Tier 3 includes many occupations linked to construction, infrastructure, and technical industries. 

Examples include: 

• Electricians 
• Plumbers
• Wall and floor tilers
• Painters  
• Plasterers

These occupations play an important role in addressing Australia’s housing supply shortage and infrastructure development. 

Tier 4 – Other Skilled Occupations 

Tier 4 includes several traditionally popular migration occupations such as: 

• Accountants 
• External auditors 
• Internal auditors 
• ICT business analysts 
• Systems analysts 
• Software engineers 
• Developer programmers 
• ICT security specialists 
• Chefs 

Although these occupations remain eligible for skilled migration, they may receive lower priority when invitations are allocated. 

How Occupation Ceilings Are Calculated 

The FOI documents reveal that the Department uses a data-driven formula to determine occupation ceilings. This formula is based on labour market data and migration program planning. The calculation involves several key steps. 

Step 1: Determine Workforce Size 

The government first determines the number of workers currently employed in each occupation. This information is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The figure is referred to as the “average stock” of workers in the occupation. This provides an estimate of how large the occupation is within the Australian workforce. 

Step 2: Apply a Tier Multiplier 

Each occupation is assigned a percentage multiplier based on its priority tier. For example: 

•  Tier 1 occupations may use a 4 percent multiplier
• Lower tiers may use smaller percentages 

The multiplier is applied to the workforce size to estimate the maximum number of potential migration places for that occupation. 

Step 3: Calculate the Occupation Ceiling 

Once the multiplier is applied, the result becomes the occupation ceiling. This ceiling represents the maximum number of invitations that may be issued for that occupation during the migration program year. For example: 

Registered Nurses: 

• Workforce size: 348,233 
• Tier multiplier: 4 percent 
• Calculated occupation ceiling: 13,929 places 

This indicates that the government could potentially invite up to that number of registered nurses across eligible visa streams. 

Step 4: Deduct Visas Issued Through Other Pathways 

The Department then considers visas already granted in that occupation through other migration pathways. These may include:

• Subclass 190 state nominated visas 
• Subclass 186 employer nominated visas 
• Subclass 494 regional employer sponsored visas 
• Subclass 491 family sponsored visas 

These grants are deducted from the calculated ceiling. The remaining number represents the maximum number of invitations available for the Subclass 189 visa in that occupation. 

Example: Registered Nurses 

The FOI documents include a practical example using the Registered Nurse occupation. 

This example illustrates how the Department uses workforce data to guide migration planning. 

What the November 2025 Invitation Round Revealed:  Another FOI document relates to the SkillSelect invitation round conducted on 13 November 2025.

The planning tables show: 

• 10,000 invitations issued for the Subclass 189 visa 
• 300 invitations issued for the Subclass 491 Family Sponsored visa 

The round included invitations across more than 140 occupations. However, the tier system suggests that some occupations may have received significantly more invitations than others

Why Points Alone Do Not Determine Invitations 

Many migrants focus heavily on achieving a higher points score. While points remain important, the FOI documents demonstrate that occupation demand also plays a critical role. 

Two applicants with identical points scores may experience very different outcomes depending on: 

• Their occupation 
• Workforce demand 
• Government migration priorities 
• The number of visas already granted in that occupation 

This is why some occupations may receive invitations at lower points, while others require significantly higher scores. 

Why Strategic Migration Planning Is Important 

Given the complexity of the skilled migration system, relying on a single visa pathway can be risky. Applicants should consider a range of options when planning their migration strategy.

These may include: 

• Skilled Independent visa (Subclass 189) 
• State nominated visa (Subclass 190) 
• Regional state nomination (Subclass 491) 
• Employer sponsorship (Subclass 482 or Subclass 186) 

Each pathway operates under different selection criteria and may provide opportunities depending on an applicant’s circumstances. 

Final Thoughts 

The recently released FOI documents provide valuable transparency into how Australia manages its skilled migration program. They confirm that the government uses labour market data, occupation ceilings, and workforce priorities to determine how invitations are distributed. For migrants hoping to build a future in Australia, understanding these mechanisms can help set realistic expectations and guide better decision-making. Migration planning is no longer simply about achieving the highest possible points score. It is about choosing the right strategy based on occupation demand and available visa pathways.

Need Help Planning Your Skilled Migration Pathway? 

At Better Life Migration, we help migrants navigate Australia’s complex visa system and identify the most suitable pathway to permanent residency. Whether you are considering the 189 visa, state nomination, or employer sponsorship, professional advice can help you make informed decisions. 

📞 0415 419 414  or visit 🌐 www.betterlifemigration.com.au

Sources 

Department of Home Affairs – FOI Disclosure Log 
Documents relating to: 

• Planning for the 13 November 2025 SkillSelect invitation round 

• Calculation of occupation ceilings for the 2025–26 migration program